Archive for October, 2008

  • Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 10/31/08
    , October 31st, 2008 at 4:16 pm

  • From Failed Moves
    , October 31st, 2008 at 2:21 pm

    often come fast moves in the opposite direction. Be very careful here.

  • Healthy Consolidation?
    , October 31st, 2008 at 12:49 pm

    While the Qs battle with reistance near 33.00, the market has held the gains for the week very well and a pattern of higher lows (on the 10 minute timeframe) has emerged. The primary trend remains lower and the daily timeframe is still a wreck which is why you cannot let your guard down by only considering a break past 33 scenario. This will probably be my only post until the video after the close.

  • Bank Robbery
    , October 31st, 2008 at 6:04 am

    It is easier to rob by setting up a bank than by holding up a bank clerk.
    ~Bertolt Brecht

  • Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 10/30/08
    , October 30th, 2008 at 4:24 pm


    If you are a trader, you do not want your name on THIS LIST

    BTW, I am considering putting all intraday updates in the bonus section of the book site next week, which means you will need the username and password in the book to access.

  • Again?
    , October 30th, 2008 at 3:15 pm

    Be careful

  • Back Near Highs
    , October 30th, 2008 at 2:53 pm

    Although I don’t think the market has digested gains long enough, we have to be prepared for the possibility that the market may continue higher without further consolidation, leaving the unprepared participants in a position to chase much later. As we have seen lately, the final hour can bring anything and things can happen very quickly.

  • 1 Minute Inverted H&S
    , October 30th, 2008 at 1:12 pm

    2347 advancing stocks
    667 declining stocks

    The market holds up well and it just broke back above daily VWAP and the neckline of an inverted H&S pattern. Let’s see if the VWAP/neckline acts as support.

    .

  • Election Plays?
    , October 30th, 2008 at 12:53 pm

    Stem cell company’s engage in research methods which some people find to be objectionable. President Bush has been one of the largest critics of their methods and has taken the extreme action of vetoing Federal funding for embryonic stem cell research twice. The coming change in administration will bring support for embryonic research (see positions of both candidates from wikipedia below) which means the companys engaged in that area of research will become eligible for federal funding for their research. Of course it will take time to pass the bills and get the money to the companys, but the perception of change is likely to be the catalyst for more investor awareness/ buying of the stocks. None of the stocks look bullish here, but some of the charts are improving. The stocks I am watching in this group are:ASTM, GERN and STEM. I am long some ASTM now and will be a seller of part of the position near .40 and will hold the balance for a move up towards .50-.55 if the momentum builds. I do not consider these to be good investments, they are small speculative bets on a change in perception. If the stock drops down towards .32 I will liquidate and move on. Do your own research and manage risk.

    Obama supports embryonic stem cell research and was a co-sponsor[273] of the 2005 Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act which was passed by both houses of Congress but vetoed by President Bush. Obama condemned Bush’s veto, saying, “Democrats want this bill to pass. Conservative, pro-life Republicans want this bill to pass. By large margins, the American people want this bill to pass. It is only the White House standing in the way of progress – standing in the way of so many potential cures.” He also voted in favor of the 2007 bill lifting restrictions on embryonic stem cell research that was passed but was also vetoed by President Bush.

    McCain     is a member of The Republican Main Street Partnership and supports embryonic stem cell research despite his earlier opposition.[317] He states that he believes that stem cell research, and indeed embryonic stem cell research, will continue whether or not the U.S. sanctions it, and so it would be the wisest course of action to support it to the extent that the United States will be able to regulate and monitor the use.[citation needed] In July 2008 he said “At the moment I support stem cell research [because of] the potential it has for curing some of the most terrible diseases that afflict mankind.

  • A Step Back for Perspective
    , October 30th, 2008 at 10:32 am

    The chart below shows the Daily and 30 minute timeframes for the Qs. The area shaded in yellow is magnified with 30 minute data on the inset chart. This rally is still within the confines of a bear market so all long plays should be smaller size and have strict risk management. One potential scenario is a continued pullback which would meet up with the rising 5 DMA (maybe near 31.00?). A pullback like this would also build a right shoulder for a crudely formed inverted H&S pattern with the neckline near 33.35. A break of that neckline would lead to a conservative upside target near 37 which is near the high from Oct 14 and where the declining 50 DMA could be met. For now, it appears we need to consolidate further before such a scenario could unfold but it is something to keep in the back of your mind. Let price action dictate, it remains a volatile and dangerous market.

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