Archive for October, 2009

  • Longer Term Look at S&P 500
    , October 31st, 2009 at 9:52 am

    The trendline from the March lows was broken this week, but trendline breaks do not assure a reversal, they indicate a slowing of the trend. The SPY is still showing a weekly pattern of higher highs and higher lows. A break below the October low of 101.64 would create a lower low, but that would not be the ideal short entry as the market has already expended quite a bit of energy getting to these levels. A lower low followed by a rally which falls short of the 110 area would be of more concern, especially if the volume were to trail off significantly on such a rally.

    The majority of earnings reports for the third quarter are now behind us and it appears to be a case of “sell the news”. This past week a lot of participants were reminded of the importance of a strong defense as the market started to acknowledge risks after what has been a great rally.

  • Longer Term Look at S&P 500
    , October 31st, 2009 at 9:52 am

    The trendline from the March lows was broken this week, but trendline breaks do not assure a reversal, they indicate a slowing of the trend. The SPY is still showing a weekly pattern of higher highs and higher lows. A break below the October low of 101.64 would create a lower low, but that would not be the ideal short entry as the market has already expended quite a bit of energy getting to these levels. A lower low followed by a rally which falls short of the 110 area would be of more concern, especially if the volume were to trail off significantly on such a rally.

    The majority of earnings reports for the third quarter are now behind us and it appears to be a case of “sell the news”. This past week a lot of participants were reminded of the importance of a strong defense as the market started to acknowledge risks after what has been a great rally.

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    Stock Market Video Analysis 10/30/09
    , October 30th, 2009 at 4:31 pm

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  • S&P 500 Morning Analysis 10/30/09
    , October 30th, 2009 at 8:41 am

    After getting deeply oversold in the short term, the markets gave us a nice trend day higher and went on to exceed the targeted 106 level. With a declining 5DMA, it is difficult to trust rallies for more than a daytrade and this morning we are seeing some weakness as the SPY is currently trading at 106.35 Today looks like a day to go slow to me.

  • S&P 500 Morning Analysis 10/30/09
    , October 30th, 2009 at 8:41 am

    After getting deeply oversold in the short term, the markets gave us a nice trend day higher and went on to exceed the targeted 106 level. With a declining 5DMA, it is difficult to trust rallies for more than a daytrade and this morning we are seeing some weakness as the SPY is currently trading at 106.35 Today looks like a day to go slow to me.

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    Trade Ideas and QA for 10/30/09
    , October 29th, 2009 at 6:27 pm

    Questions answered in the video include:
    - Importance of daily VWAP of the market vs an individual stock when considering entry
    - What are the “auction events” and why we should be aware of the times of completion?
    - Does this rationale for entering TBT make sense?
    - What are some factors that make a good swing trade candidate vs a good daytrade candidate?
    - Which economic events are important/market movers and which aren’t?

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    Stock Market Video Analysis 10/29/09
    , October 29th, 2009 at 4:24 pm

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    Midday Video Analysis 10/29/09
    , October 29th, 2009 at 11:43 am

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  • S&P 500 Morning Analysis 10/29/09
    , October 29th, 2009 at 8:40 am

    The 106 level failed to hold as support yesterday and that brought a move down through the 61.8% retracement level from the October range and also down through the rising 50 DMA. The SPY has two uptrend lines from different timeframes which are converging right near yesterday’s close and that makes it a level of significance from participants with different timeframe objectives (more important) The market has gotten quite oversold and is now bouncing up beyond 105.10 in the pre market, yesterday’s VWAP will be found near 105.25 and that may be a level the market backs off and consolidates before being able to rally further. If the buyers can maintain control, we could have a trend day higher which could see the market run up towards 106.

  • S&P 500 Morning Analysis 10/29/09
    , October 29th, 2009 at 8:40 am

    The 106 level failed to hold as support yesterday and that brought a move down through the 61.8% retracement level from the October range and also down through the rising 50 DMA. The SPY has two uptrend lines from different timeframes which are converging right near yesterday’s close and that makes it a level of significance from participants with different timeframe objectives (more important) The market has gotten quite oversold and is now bouncing up beyond 105.10 in the pre market, yesterday’s VWAP will be found near 105.25 and that may be a level the market backs off and consolidates before being able to rally further. If the buyers can maintain control, we could have a trend day higher which could see the market run up towards 106.

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