AlphaTrends Trading Blog

Objective technical analysis of stock market trends since 2006.

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Retracement Levels Being Hit in SPY and QQQ

Reasons for today’s strength can be found all over the internet, the discussion here will remain focused on price action.  We have been observing the Fibonacci retracement levels from the October highs to the low from last Friday and today the market is reminding us of why it is good to use these price tools for reference points.

The $SPY has exceeded the prior support at 122 which would have been a logical place to look for resistance and has instead rallied up to the 61.8% level where it appears it should level out and digest the gains.

The 56 level is important for $QQQ because it is; prior support, ~50% retrace and approx level of the declining 20 and 50 (not shown) day moving averages.  It seems there should be consolidation in this area.

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Fibonacci & Prior Support Lining Up

We observed the markets follow the Fibonacci retracements of the October range fairly closely over the last couple of weeks and now that the market is bouncing higher it is a good idea to look at retracement levels of from the October highs down to the recent lows.  Of course, prior levels of support should be watched as potential resistance areas too when a market is bouncing, some of those levels are outlined below.  We have been using the 65 minute charts recently but today switched to the 30 minute timeframe as the longer time reference isn’t as important to frame the bounce potential.  The markets are bouncing, but confidence in this rally is low, for me at least.  Back below Monday’s lows would be troublesome.

click the chart to enlarge

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Market Clarity?

Today’s action was quite erratic and did little to provide any clarity to trade with confidence. The video below does show that there is some logic to the way prices are acting, but it is very difficult to have much trust in the action.

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Lot For Market To Prove

The headline of 3%+ rally looks great, but in order to take advantage you would have had to step in front of the bloodbath Friday afternoon. Rallies in a downtrend are often powerful (like this one) but there are potential heavy resistance levels not far away. Longs should be kept to a daytrading basis until the market is able to prove itself further.

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Webinar Registration & Trade Ideas for 11.28.11

{+++}Please REGISTER HERE for MONDAY’s (November 28) live event from 8-9 PM Eastern. We will not discuss any bulletin board stocks or stocks which trade less than 500,000 shares per day.

There are some very simple procedures I ask everyone to follow to ensure that the webinar flows smoothly and that your questions get answered.

1- Questions about market concepts should be sent only to 1bshannon@gmail.com If you would like your question answered please be concise. You can send your questions in at anytime, but they will only be answered during the live event or in subsequent videos.

2- We will discuss your specific stock ideas and use the gotomeeting text chat for those requests, during the meeting I do not monitor other email accounts or the twitter stream for questions.

I find it distracting to the flow of the meeting

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Rough Week for Stocks - Video

It was a rough week for stocks as key support levels were broken and selling persisted. Right now there are no signs of new support levels being formed and a defensive posture remains prudent. While markets remain below their declining 5 day moving averages they should be considered guilty until proven innocent.

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