Archive for November, 2011

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    Stock Market Video Analysis &Trade Ideas for Thursday
    , November 30th, 2011 at 4:34 pm

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  • Nasdaq Back to Positive YTD (again…)
    , November 30th, 2011 at 4:05 pm

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  • Retracement Levels Being Hit in SPY and QQQ
    , November 30th, 2011 at 2:12 pm

    Reasons for today’s strength can be found all over the internet, the discussion here will remain focused on price action.  We have been observing the Fibonacci retracement levels from the October highs to the low from last Friday and today the market is reminding us of why it is good to use these price tools for reference points.

    The $SPY has exceeded the prior support at 122 which would have been a logical place to look for resistance and has instead rallied up to the 61.8% level where it appears it should level out and digest the gains.

    The 56 level is important for $QQQ because it is; prior support, ~50% retrace and approx level of the declining 20 and 50 (not shown) day moving averages.  It seems there should be consolidation in this area.

    Yesterday I expressed a lack of confidence in continued strength and if you shared my viewpoint then today’s large gap up ruined the opportunity for low risk entries.  It is normal to question a patient and disciplined approach when the markets make such a large move and you are not participating.  I always like to think of the phrase “it is better to be on the sidelines in cash wishing you were in than it is to be in the market wishing you were out.”  Patience and discipline always reward us in the bigger picture.

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    Stock Market Video Analysis & Trade Ideas for 11/30/11
    , November 29th, 2011 at 4:39 pm

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  • Fibonacci & Prior Support Lining Up
    , November 29th, 2011 at 11:50 am

    We observed the markets follow the Fibonacci retracements of the October range fairly closely over the last couple of weeks and now that the market is bouncing higher it is a good idea to look at retracement levels of from the October highs down to the recent lows.  Of course, prior levels of support should be watched as potential resistance areas too when a market is bouncing, some of those levels are outlined below.  We have been using the 65 minute charts recently but today switched to the 30 minute timeframe as the longer time reference isn’t as important to frame the bounce potential.  The markets are bouncing, but confidence in this rally is low, for me at least.  Back below Monday’s lows would be troublesome.

    click the chart to enlarge

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    Webinar Recording & Trade Ideas for 11/29
    , November 28th, 2011 at 9:33 pm

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  • Market Clarity?
    , November 28th, 2011 at 4:32 pm

    Today’s action was quite erratic and did little to provide any clarity to trade with confidence. The video below does show that there is some logic to the way prices are acting, but it is very difficult to have much trust in the action.

  • Lot For Market To Prove
    , November 28th, 2011 at 12:12 pm

    The headline of 3%+ rally looks great, but in order to take advantage you would have had to step in front of the bloodbath Friday afternoon. Rallies in a downtrend are often powerful (like this one) but there are potential heavy resistance levels not far away. Longs should be kept to a daytrading basis until the market is able to prove itself further.

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    Webinar Registration & Trade Ideas for 11.28.11
    , November 26th, 2011 at 8:38 pm

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  • Rough Week for Stocks – Video
    , November 25th, 2011 at 2:34 pm

    It was a rough week for stocks as key support levels were broken and selling persisted. Right now there are no signs of new support levels being formed and a defensive posture remains prudent. While markets remain below their declining 5 day moving averages they should be considered guilty until proven innocent.