With the $QQQ and $IWM right near their 200 day moving averages for the first time since June, it “seems like” the market should bounce.
“Seems like” is not an objective technical measure. we need to look at price action on the shorter term timeframes for evidence that sellers are losing conviction and that buyers are stepping to at least provide a stable level of support to rally from.
Unfortunately, markets (exception of battered $SMH) are still below declining 5 day moving averages (which makes them guilty until proven innocent) and buyers are not stepping up with any confidence which continues to leave the market suspect.
$SPY IF a the market holds above last weeks low then we will have a higher low, but 142 has proven to be tough resistance and the upside appears limited with the priorContinue reading
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I will be out of the office Thursday afternoon and all day Friday and am unsure what my schedule will be like for getting new posts out. For now, expect that I will not be updating until the weekend but if I get the time available I will definitely try to make a post or two.
Markets may be waiting on word from the Fed, but it is difficult to imagine strong enough words to turn the tide for equities. The charts below look at some of the key levels.
$SPY broke important support and now we will have to see 142.50-143.00 retaken for the intermediate term trend to turn from “guilty til proven innocent” to a more neutral tone.
$QQQ has failed to find any support at the potential levels I outlined yesterday and as such, there is no reason to be long, even getting back above 66.00 isn’t much reason to celebrate as prior support near 66.50 is an area of likely resistance.
$IWM the important level of 82.00 failed to hold and resistance has formed in there as well.
$SMH the semiconductors continue to make a pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
click charts to enlarge