• VIDEO- Stock Market Analysis 3/5/12
    Posted by on March 5th, 2012 at 4:22 pm, Comments: 0

    We have been more cautious regarding the overall market as the Russell 2000 $IWM has been underperforming lately and broke important support on Friday. Today, the $SPY brok through the uptrend line which has been defining the uptrend for 2012 and it also broke a short term level of support. The longer term trends are still higher for all the benchmark averages we follow, but with short term trends deteriorating we still need to play a strong defense.

  • VIDEO- Stock Market Analysis Week Ending 3/2/12
    Posted by on March 2nd, 2012 at 4:30 pm, Comments: 0

    Markets continue to act tired but the majority of stocks continue to hold up well. The main area of concern right now is the action in the Russell 2000 ($IWM) which broke below support of the last month at 81. The Semiconductors $SMH) are another group which looks vulnerable and breaking below 34 would give us more reason for concern. The video below takes a look at these markets as well as $QQQ $XLF $SPY

  • Cautious, NOT Bearish (VIDEO)
    Posted by on February 29th, 2012 at 4:35 pm, Comments: 0

    The market has experienced a large rally this year and now a little bit of selling seems to be bringing out a lot of nervous calls that the market is topping. Perhaps that is true and we have seen highs for a while, but markets dont usually switch direction all at once, it is more of a transition and this process may have begun, but evidence of real selling (lower highs and lower lows) just does not exist. Listen the the market, it is saying “be cautious, protect your gains, raise stops” it is not saying to get aggressively short.

  • Buyers Remain in Control
    Posted by on February 27th, 2012 at 12:07 pm, Comments: 0

    Although they are extended, the trends of the $SPY and $QQQ continue to be firmly higher as buyers stepped up in just ahead of key levels of support this morning. The $XLF and $SMH are more neutral and need to be watched closely, but consolidations are generally resolved in the direction of the trend from the larger time frame, which is higher.

    click chars to expand

  • Stock Market Video Analysis Week Ending 2/24/12
    Posted by on February 24th, 2012 at 5:54 pm, Comments: 0

    The video below takes a look at the trends of $SPY $QQQ $IWM $XLF $SMH

    I didn’t trade today, too much fresh snow to work, finally!

    I never think about work when I am doing other things.

  • Closing In on Inverted Head & Shoulders Target
    Posted by on February 23rd, 2012 at 10:01 pm, Comments: 0

    We have been tracking the inverted head and shoulders pattern on the $SPY since December of last year as the right shoulder was forming. The two arrows on the chart below are the exact same height.  They represent the height of the  inverted head and shoulders pattern and the projected upside target from the break of the neckline.  

    When the neckline was broken I cautioned that we couldn’t expect the upward target near 138 to be met without any significant pullbacks along the way. The target has not yet been hit, but I was wrong about significant pullbacks as the SPY has not experienced a down 1% day once this year.  The chart in the POST BELOW takes a look at the steady uptrend the market has been in.  Will the market it make it to the 138 level?  Seems like it, but our job is to manage risk, focus on that.

  • Uptrend Intact
    Posted by on February 23rd, 2012 at 1:21 pm, Comments: 0

    The markets have felt a little sluggish lately, but the uptrends remain firmly intact. The $SPY remains above advancing 5, 10 and 20 day moving averages and above the uptrend line. Today’s low will be an important reference point for the rest of the week, a move below it would likely bring about a test of some other levels below (~134.50 then 133.80)

  • VWAP Apple
    Posted by on February 21st, 2012 at 4:48 pm, Comments: 0

    Last week we were watching the vwappl (dumb I know) “since the event”. The event, of course, was the run to new highs and then the strong intraday pullback. The volume weighted average price (vwap) since that event is now found at approx 506, which means the average long in the stock is up by about 9 points. The vwap from the event will likely continue to be important so I would keep a close eye on it. For now, buyers remain in control of the trends in $AAPL

  • VIDEO- Stock Market Analysis Week Ending 2/17/12
    Posted by on February 17th, 2012 at 4:45 pm, Comments: 0

    Early in the week it appeared that markets needed some to digest the large year to date gains, but the primary uptrend exerted its strength and continued higher. We will continue to exercise caution when the markets turn sideways in the near term, but remember that as long as the pattern of higher highs and higher lows holds the market should always be considered “innocent until proven guilty.” Enjoy the extra day this weekend!

  • VIDEO Stock Market Analysis & Trade Ideas for 2/16/12
    Posted by on February 16th, 2012 at 4:48 pm, Comments: 0