Posts Tagged ‘fibonacci’

  • S&P 500 Levels and Analysis 5/20/10
    , May 20th, 2010 at 8:09 am

    The market is going to open down hard today, the pre-market low for the SPY has been 109.42 which is a penny above the intraday low from Friday May 7.  Just under 110 is the 61.8% retracement we have been watching all week and now that level has been obtained.  If the market takes out the pre market low, keep an eye on S2 today, it will be found at 109.22.   I woldn’t be in a hurry to do much today, let the market settle in and keep a close eye on where it is trading relative to the daily VWAP.

  • S&P 500 Levels and Analysis 5/20/10
    , May 20th, 2010 at 8:09 am

    The market is going to open down hard today, the pre-market low for the SPY has been 109.42 which is a penny above the intraday low from Friday May 7.  Just under 110 is the 61.8% retracement we have been watching all week and now that level has been obtained.  If the market takes out the pre market low, keep an eye on S2 today, it will be found at 109.22.   I woldn’t be in a hurry to do much today, let the market settle in and keep a close eye on where it is trading relative to the daily VWAP.

  • S&P 500 Analysis & Levels for 2/19/10
    , February 18th, 2010 at 6:55 pm

    On Thursday, the SPY continued higher up beyond the 110.50 level which had been prior resistance and closed right near the declining 50 day moving average (green average on right).  The recent rally also brought the SPY up to the 61.8% retracement of the 2010 high to the low of the year.  After the close, the Fed shook the markets up with a change in the discount rate and at last check, the SPY  was trading at 110.16.  The best potential levels for near term support are now found near 109.75 and then near 109.00.  Friday is options expiration day and that would have been a reason for heightened risk management, now we have a gap lower to deal with which will make an even more cautious approach more prudent.

  • S&P 500 Analysis & Levels for 2/19/10
    , February 18th, 2010 at 6:55 pm

    On Thursday, the SPY continued higher up beyond the 110.50 level which had been prior resistance and closed right near the declining 50 day moving average (green average on right).  The recent rally also brought the SPY up to the 61.8% retracement of the 2010 high to the low of the year.  After the close, the Fed shook the markets up with a change in the discount rate and at last check, the SPY  was trading at 110.16.  The best potential levels for near term support are now found near 109.75 and then near 109.00.  Friday is options expiration day and that would have been a reason for heightened risk management, now we have a gap lower to deal with which will make an even more cautious approach more prudent.

  • S&P 500 Levels for Feb 18, 2010
    , February 17th, 2010 at 9:48 pm

    After finding support at the rising 5 day moving average on Friday’s gap lower, the SPY has followed through nicely on the upside.  We now find the SPY at the most recent significant level of intermediate term resistance near 110.50.  These two timeframes (65 min on left and daily on right) show there to be three significant areas of interest (potential resistance) just above us: the December 31 low, the declining 50 DMA and the 61.8% retracement of the 2010 high to low range.  With these three levels just ahead and the declining volume of the last couple of days, extra care should be taken to protect long side gains and to raise defensive levels in general.

  • S&P 500 Levels for Feb 18, 2010
    , February 17th, 2010 at 9:48 pm

    After finding support at the rising 5 day moving average on Friday’s gap lower, the SPY has followed through nicely on the upside.  We now find the SPY at the most recent significant level of intermediate term resistance near 110.50.  These two timeframes (65 min on left and daily on right) show there to be three significant areas of interest (potential resistance) just above us: the December 31 low, the declining 50 DMA and the 61.8% retracement of the 2010 high to low range.  With these three levels just ahead and the declining volume of the last couple of days, extra care should be taken to protect long side gains and to raise defensive levels in general.

  • S&P 500 Analysis for 2-12-10
    , February 11th, 2010 at 9:01 pm

    From the February high to the low of the month, the SPY has retraced almost exactly 61.8% of the range which makes the current level of the market of interest to a large group of participants who follow Fiobnacci levels.   The current levels are also a prior level of support and that reinforces the importance of ~108-108.25 to another group of participants.  The market remains fragile and difficult to trust on the long side and current conditions continue to favor short term strategies until the market can settle down.  If the market is going to be able to recapture the 108.25 area it would be good to see a pullback towards the now rising 5 DMA and then a push higher.

  • S&P 500 Analysis for 2-12-10
    , February 11th, 2010 at 9:01 pm

    From the February high to the low of the month, the SPY has retraced almost exactly 61.8% of the range which makes the current level of the market of interest to a large group of participants who follow Fiobnacci levels.   The current levels are also a prior level of support and that reinforces the importance of ~108-108.25 to another group of participants.  The market remains fragile and difficult to trust on the long side and current conditions continue to favor short term strategies until the market can settle down.  If the market is going to be able to recapture the 108.25 area it would be good to see a pullback towards the now rising 5 DMA and then a push higher.

  • S&P 500 Analysis for Thursday 2-4-10
    , February 3rd, 2010 at 8:07 pm

    The SPY backed off the 38.2% retracement level of the range for the year and has carved out a higher low above the rising 5 day moving average, but the upside action remains difficult to trust.  Tomorrow is looking like a pivotal day, if the higher low (~109.40) and the rising 5DMA (~109.20) can hold as support then another challenge of 110.60 looks reasonable.  Above 110.60, short sellers could panic and drive the market up towards the 111.39 level which is the December 31 low as well as the approximate 50% retracement of the range.  Be sure to keep an eye on the QQQQ as it is making a lighter volume move to prior support at 44, a failure of the Qs would likely lead to SPY weakness.

  • S&P 500 Analysis for Thursday 2-4-10
    , February 3rd, 2010 at 8:07 pm

    The SPY backed off the 38.2% retracement level of the range for the year and has carved out a higher low above the rising 5 day moving average, but the upside action remains difficult to trust.  Tomorrow is looking like a pivotal day, if the higher low (~109.40) and the rising 5DMA (~109.20) can hold as support then another challenge of 110.60 looks reasonable.  Above 110.60, short sellers could panic and drive the market up towards the 111.39 level which is the December 31 low as well as the approximate 50% retracement of the range.  Be sure to keep an eye on the QQQQ as it is making a lighter volume move to prior support at 44, a failure of the Qs would likely lead to SPY weakness.

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