Posts Tagged ‘IWM’

  • S&P 500 Up 7.3% This Week, But Still Down For Year
    , December 2nd, 2011 at 4:30 pm

    Last Friday the market closed on the low of a week long selloff and the market looked terrible.   On Monday, the markets exploded higher with a large gap, which left shorts scrambling to cover and sidelined cash wondering if it was just a blip in a downtrend.  As the market held the gains we saw another large gap higher on Wednesday which further pressured shorts and make disciplined traders who are accustomed to “cleaner setups” feeling like they once again missed out.  Of course there were intraday opportunities and some decent setups, but most of the people I know felt like they missed a lot of the action.

    To keep things in perspective, the $SPY is still negative YTD, despite a massive 7.3% rally this week.  The market volatility has been phenomenal this year and there is no reason to think things have settled down or become more normal.  The video below discusses some of the key levels to keep an eye on from here.

     

  • Market Clarity?
    , November 28th, 2011 at 4:32 pm

    Today’s action was quite erratic and did little to provide any clarity to trade with confidence. The video below does show that there is some logic to the way prices are acting, but it is very difficult to have much trust in the action.

  • Rough Week for Stocks – Video
    , November 25th, 2011 at 2:34 pm

    It was a rough week for stocks as key support levels were broken and selling persisted. Right now there are no signs of new support levels being formed and a defensive posture remains prudent. While markets remain below their declining 5 day moving averages they should be considered guilty until proven innocent.

  • Moving Averages are Just POTENTIAL Support Levels
    , November 21st, 2011 at 4:21 pm

    There are times when a moving average will offer trend support or resistance to the penny and a lot of that has to do with the self fulfilling nature of technical analysis near widely watched levels.  The 50 day moving average is a very widely watched technical level and many people were looking to buy as the market touched that level.  Well the $SPY gapped down and closed below the 50 dma, so the perceived opportunity to buy never materialized.

    I like to say that the moving averages are just a reference point to compare trend to and that they give us an idea of when to look a the action on a shorter term timeframe.  The video below describes more…

  • Key Levels Tested and Breaking
    , November 17th, 2011 at 12:56 pm

    The scenario fo a quick drip through support and then bounce in the $XLF seems to be a lost cause for now as weakness has persisted and that group is stuck under prior support of 1280 and the 50 day moving average (not shown on chart) at 12.65.

    $SPY is now testing lows from the beginning of the month and the location of the volume weighted average price (VWAP) since the October low.  Trying to pick a turn point is difficult and most people are best of sidelined if you havent participated in the weakenss.

    $QQQ gives us reason for further concern as the important support at 56.00 has been violated as has the 50 day moving average at 56.15.  The Qs will have to get back above 56 at a minimum before longs can be trusted.

    $SMH is testing key support at 3050 with a 50 DMA just below at 30.36

  • Financial Stocks Still Reason for Concern
    , November 16th, 2011 at 12:39 pm

    Almost as soon as I hit send on yesterday’s post of the updated charts below, the market rallied nicely.  Today we are back to choppy trading in nearly the same spot.  The $XLF remains the primary concern as it appears to have made another lower high above the critical 12.80 level.  If the XLF downtrend line is taken out and the recent lower high is exceeded it could lead to a squeeze, dont’ get complacent in either direction here.

    Action in $SPY $QQQ $IWM is more neutral as the market awaits some kind of catalyst, what will it be?  Until we have a resolution it seems best to continue with a cautious stance and the light volume suggests that is the consensus.  Which brings up the the thought that when everyone is waiting for something to happen and it seems boring, that is often the time to be most alert.

  • Stuck in Ranges
    , November 15th, 2011 at 12:00 pm

    Trading volume is very light once again and markets are stuck in ranges above key support levels.  The blue horizontal lines represent the volume weighted average price from the October low through current prices.

    You can see the $XLF has struggled with that level the most, but prices remain above that level which is also critical horizontal support ~12.80  Breaking below 1280 and staying below would likely cause weakness in the broader market.  If however we get a break below and quick recovery it could be the catalyst for a squeeze.  Stay on your toes, anything can happen here.

  • Key Levels Still Hold
    , November 14th, 2011 at 4:25 pm

    The $SPY continues to battle with the 200 day moving average and the year to date positive column. As long as the key levels outlined in the video below hold we will be cautiously optimistic over the intermediate term.

  • Stock Market Video Analysis 10/31/11
    , October 31st, 2011 at 4:30 pm

    Markets finished with losses on the last day of the month and it put the $SPY back into the losing column YTD, but the monthly numbers were still very bullish. See the video below for key levels going forward.

  • Stock Market Video Analysis 10/10/11
    , October 10th, 2011 at 4:21 pm

    Officially, we still have a pattern of lower highs and lower lows for the major indexes, but the ranges are so large that it is difficult to keep a long or short bias for more than a week or so at a time. Even a week is seeming longer term in this market as the intraday volatility has been quite explosive. The video below looks at trends and key levelss in $SPY $QQQ $IWM $XLF $SMH $IYR