After the volatility we saw 2 weeks ago it appeared some consolidation was due for the markets but buyers showed up once again and longer term uptrends continued to exert their strength. The higher we go it seems that more people are focused on picking “the top.” The correct focus should continue to be objective observation of the market action for clues of weakness and to manage risk, but that is ALWAYS our job, to manage risk!
The market outlook continues to be bullish and the video below outlines some crucial levels of support in $SPY $QQQ $IWM $XLF $SMH to measure the strength against. A strong uptrend doesn’t mean throw caution to the wind and just buy anything at anytime, we still have to be aware of low risk entry levels and not expect to be
Markets are still in a clear longer term uptrends and are presumed innocent until proven guilty with the rising 50 day moving averages. This week we had our first closes below a declining 5 day MA for most of the averages which makes the near term trend more uncertain.
Since the beginning of the year, markets have held up above a series of higher lows which have been the basis of our bullish outlook. This week that series of higher lows was violated and it indicates the markets will need to heal a bit before we know if the longer trend can re-exert itself. The video below takes a look at key levels and potential scenarios for the week ahead.
Every selloff of more than one percent this year has proven to be a buying opportunity as the key support levels we have monitored have held. Today we saw the most intense selling we have had in a while and some of those support levels are now in question. The video below takes a look at what I think the most likely scenario is for the next couple of days in $SPY $QQQ $IWM $XLF $SMH
Trends remain higher and levels of intermediate term support moved up once again this week. I will be out on Friday and the video below outlines key levels of support for the market to hold for the buyers to remain in control. As emphasized in the video, if we see a break of these levels it will not turn the markets bearish, only more neutral in the intermediate term and we would have to watch the action further for more clues as to what is next. Until then the trend is your friend.
The primary trends are still higher and while it is tempting to think the market is ready for a more meaningful pullback, there is zero evidence that a larger pullback will develop. Of course that doesn’t mean we should just blindly trust the trend, it means that we need to remain focused on price action and monitor key levels of support in the averages and more importantly, in the stocks you are involved in. It is tough to trust a market to continue to add to its gains when trends have become stretched but as long as key support levels hold the buyers continue to get the benefit of the doubt.
The markets tested and held key levels of support and the market surged higher once again. Picking a top is a suckers game and panicking out of long positions while the uptrend remains intact is a frustrating experience. Learn to listen to the message of the market. The market has given us temporary reasons to increase our levels of caution, but the theme remains “innocent until proven guilty” while the pattern of higher highs and higher lows remains intact.
The video below takes a look at key levels and scenarios gooing forward in teh $SPY $QQQ $IWM $XLF $SMH
$SPY still in uptrend on daily timeframe but momentum has slowed and it is below the 5 dma and support from earlier in the week at the 15050-15060 range, near term cautious. More important support is still found between 14920-14975, holding above this area keeps the market “innocent until proven guilty”
$QQQ stuck in the choppy range of 6615-6780. 6620 takes on further significance now that it is also the location of the rising 50 DMA. Time corrections tend to resume in the direction of the primary trend which is still higher but it will need to be above 6780 to gain any upward momentum.
$IWM Daily uptrend remains intact and it is arguably extended but as long as the key support of 8875-8900 holds the benefit of the doubt continues to go to buyers.
The markets sold off down to key levels and, while the primary trend remains higher, the intermediate term trend tells us that it is a good place to become cautious. It appears that the markets could see some further selling this week and the video below outlines some possible places the market may sell down to if support levels do fail. A scenario for $AAPL to take out the post earnings low and then bounce higher is also included in this video.
We will delve further into these topics along with general market questions and analysis of subscriber stocks in tonight’s webinar.
Only Price Pays! I repeat that phrase all the time because I constantly see comments on stocktwits, email, etc that tell me why the current market action doesnt make sense. The past couple of weeks I have been hearing that the markets had topped and a correction is imminent.
The theme I have emphasized throughout this rally is that it was “innocent until proven guilty.” Meaning that the trend should be given the benefit of the doubt as long as key levels (clearly outlined) continue to hold as support. This past week the $SPY held its key level of 148.50-149.00, the $IWM held its key level os support at 89.00, the $QQQ held its key level as did the $SMH and the $XLF.
The market remains in an uptrend and as long as the
Markets once again held above key levels of support and the trends remain “innocent until proven guilty.” The video below reviews trends and looks forward to potential scenarios for the week ahead in $SPY $QQQ $IWM $XLF $SMH $AAPL