Posts Tagged ‘$SPY’

• Foot Back to The Floor
  alphatrends, February 1st, 2012 at 12:27 pm

  Markets experienced a brief pullback which caused us to be near term cautious earlier in the week, but we were still aware that the larger term uptrend had a better chance of resumption than a sharp pullback. When markets speak, it is our job to listen objectively, but the markets rarely speak clearly.

  In the short term, the market whispers evil little thoughts into our ears while longer term messages are more clearly spoken, more sensible and easier to understand. Yesterday at the close I tweeted “constructive day, the short term “neutral to slightly negative bias” mentioned yesterday seems to be turning more neutral.” Well, today, the message is – buyers are back in control. The pattern of higher highs and higher lows is intact for $QQQ and the $SPY $XLF and $SMH appear poised to continue higher as well.

  I realize the title makes no sense with the story, the point was- the foot is back to the floor (pedal to metal) for the markets as the longer term uptrend exerts its strength once again.

  click chart to enlarge Lomu
  

• Elusive Resistance Found With Gap Fill?
  alphatrends, January 26th, 2012 at 11:10 am

  On August 5, Standard and Poor’s made this announcement United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To ‘AA+’ Due To Political Risks, Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative

  The market wasn’t surprised by the announcement, it was rumored for at least a week before the actual announcement came. In fact, the real sell off began with a gap lower on July 27 (circled area on daily chart). Today, the market closed that gap after an uninterrupted rally of ~10% from the last significant pullback low.

  Is this area going to be the elusive resistance that shorts have been looking for? It has the potential to be resistance and the short term action is indicating buyers may have run out of energy, but the trends are still higher. Picking a turning point (bottom or top) is one of the most difficult tasks for traders. If attempting to pick a top it is best to start it as a daytrade and then if the market agrees with your position, leave some on and give it more time.

  click the $SPY chart to expand
  

• Not Since January 2001 – Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
  alphatrends, January 20th, 2012 at 4:27 pm

  The last time the Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ) closed a week higher than it did today, it was the week ending January 28, 2001! It is difficult to imagine that would be possible with shares of one of its largest components ($GOOG) finishing the week down close to 10% YTD. Fortunately, the market is more than one big tech stock and the video below takes a look at trends of $SPY $IWM $XLF $SMH and some of the larger important stocks.

  

• Intermediate Term Uptrends Intact
  alphatrends, January 18th, 2012 at 12:22 pm

  Markets continue to display a healthy pattern of higher highs and higher lows above the rising 5, 10 and 20 day moving averages shown on the charts below. Yesterdays lows will be important levels for the market to hold for the remainder of the week, doing so will keep the trend intact and “innocent until proven guilty.” See yesterday’s closing video for important longer term levels for these markets.

  click charts to expand
  
  

• Stock Market Video Analysis 1/13/12
  alphatrends, January 13th, 2012 at 4:34 pm

  Markets were higher once again and key levels of support were defended on Friday which means the intermediate term trend remains “innocent until proven guilty.” See the video below for technical analysis of trends and key levels for $SPY $QQQ $IWM $XLF $SMH Enjoy the long weekned, don’t spend 3 days staring at charts!

  

• Stock Market Video Analysis 1/6/11
  alphatrends, January 6th, 2012 at 4:42 pm

  It was a constructive first week of trading for US equities but we still have a mixed picture when observing different timeframes which, unfortunately, means we still have to keep our defenses very high. The video takes a look at the trends of the $SPY $QQQ $XLF $SMH and $IWM.

  

• Higher Lows Established
  alphatrends, January 6th, 2012 at 1:37 pm

  The first week of 2012 has been a constructive one for equities and the $SPY is on track for its fourth consecutive close above the 200 day moving average since breaking below it on August 3rd. It is encouraging that the markets made higher lows (blue arrow) yesterday after absorbing the gap higher on Tuesday. These lows will be important for the markets to hold above next week, if they can hold then price targets above will come into play. Tune into my video at the end of day for a more detailed look at what those levels are along with other potential scenarios for next week.

  

• Markets are Still Acting Weak
  alphatrends, December 16th, 2011 at 5:20 pm

  It was another rough week for equities and the markets continue to look vulnerable. The video below reviews key levels of support and resistance for the $SPY $QQQ $XLF $SMH and $IWM

  

• About to Crash?
  alphatrends, December 16th, 2011 at 12:19 pm

  We saw a spirited rally this morning which once again failed to hold and markets continue to be quite vulnerable to further selling. Yesterday we observed that the best case scenario was the beginning of some stabilization, but with markets back to the edge of the cliff and below declining important moving averages, the risks still appear to be to the buyers.

  By the way, the headline was written to get attention, I am told my headlines need to be sexier… Stay disciplined.

  click chart to enlarge
  

• Support Broken Tends To Act As Resistance
  alphatrends, December 14th, 2011 at 12:43 pm

  We have been correctly suspicious of the pattern of lower highs and lower lows below the declining 5 day moving averages for the $SPY $QQQ $XLF and $SMH and that has hopefully saved you some money. The weakness in $SMH was our primary reason for concern for the broader market and after the $QQQ lost support at 56 and the $XLF broke down through 12.80 it became obvious that further weakness would be coming. The SPY has also fallen below the widely watched 50 day moving average at 122.90

  

  We like to observe the Fibonacci retracement levels for potential levels of support, but until markets actually find support on a shorter timeframe, they are simply levels to observe. You can see on the charts below that the $SPY is trying to stabilize at the 50% level, the $QQQ at the 61.8% level, $XLF near the 50% and the $SMH has exceeded the 61.8 and is considered a “failure.”

  The one thing that is certain on the intermediate term timeframe is that the pattern of lower highs and lower lows remains intact and until we see that change, equities remain “guilty until proven innocent.”