S&P 500 Analysis for Tuesday 2-9-10

• Posted by: alphatrends, February 8th, 2010 at 11:02 pm
• Comments: 0

The SPY found resistance at the  January low on Monday and then finished right at the low of the session.  As pointed out on twitter, the market is now below the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) from the last two days which means the average long from Friday and Monday is now in a losing position and that makes a test of the recent lows more likely.    Short term,  there should be some support found near 105.75 and 104.60 before the low from Friday comes into play.  If the market turns higher, short term resistance should be found ~106.80 and 107.50  With the 5 day moving average still declining, all rallies should be considered suspect.

Tickers: $SPY

Stock Market Video Analysis 2-5-10

• Posted by: alphatrends, February 4th, 2010 at 7:12 pm
• Comments: 0

Below is a 65 minute chart with the pivot levels for Friday.

Tickers: $SPY, IWM, IYR, QQQQ, XLF

S&P 500 Analysis for Thursday 2-4-10

• Posted by: alphatrends, February 3rd, 2010 at 8:07 pm
• Comments: 0

The SPY backed off the 38.2% retracement level of the range for the year and has carved out a higher low above the rising 5 day moving average, but the upside action remains difficult to trust.  Tomorrow is looking like a pivotal day, if the higher low (~109.40) and the rising 5DMA (~109.20) can hold as support then another challenge of 110.60 looks reasonable.  Above 110.60, short sellers could panic and drive the market up towards the 111.39 level which is the December 31 low as well as the approximate 50% retracement of the range.  Be sure to keep an eye on the QQQQ as it is making a lighter volume move to prior support at 44, a failure of the Qs would likely lead to SPY weakness.

Tickers: $SPY, fibonacci, QQQQ

S&P 500 Levels & Analysis for Wednesday Feb 3, 2010

• Posted by: alphatrends, February 2nd, 2010 at 9:55 pm
• Comments: 0

The SPY showed a little hesitation early Tuesday morning as it reclaimed the 5 day moving average, but then buyers decisively took control and pushed the market up just beyond the highs of the last week and past the 38.2% retracement of the break from the January highs to the recent low.  Volume has diminished noticeably on this bounce of the last two days, but only price pays and it just gives us reason to view the bounce with suspicion, not reason to sell short.  Short term, the market will need to hold the 5 DMA as support, but that average is now down at~109.10 and a more meaningful level may be near Friday’s high near 109.80 as the 5 DMA has a chance to catch up to prices if we see a time correction rather than a deeper price pullback.  The message on different timeframes is mixed and that is a time which favors shorter term strategies.

Tickers: $SPY

S&P 500 Analysis for 2-2-10

• Posted by: alphatrends, February 1st, 2010 at 7:25 pm
• Comments: 0

The SPY gapped back up through prior support at 108.00 and followed through to the upside in a choppy session on Monday.  The market is still showing a pattern of intermediate term lower highs and lower lows as it is trapped below the declining 5 day moving average.  If the market can hold above ~108.30 on Tuesday and recapture the 5 day moving average, this bounce could continue higher towards the highs of the last three days at 109.80, 110.25 and 110.45.  The market remains damaged and rally attempts from these levels should be viewed with suspicion.

Tickers: $SPY

S&P 500 Technical Analysis for 1-29-10

• Posted by: alphatrends, January 28th, 2010 at 10:49 pm
• Comments: 0

The SPY is struggling to hold above the trendline, the 100 day moving average and support. These three technical areas of interest all come together between 108.00 and 108.50. So far, the sellers remain in control as the declining 5 day moving average acted as resistance. As long as the SPY remains below the declining 5 DMA, all longs should be treated as daytrades only. The question now becomes whether the gap from mid-November at 107.40 will be “closed” before the market can regain its footing. There is no point buying at “potential” support levels, wait for the buyers to take control before putting your money at risk. Risk management is always job number one.

click chart to enlarge

Tickers: $SPY

Live Trade Recording of S&P 500 Trade During Fed Announcement

• Posted by: alphatrends, January 27th, 2010 at 11:01 pm
• Comments: 0

This is a trade I did right after the Federal Reserve announcement, it took a little while to work but patience paid off in the end.

Daytrading a Gap

• Posted by: alphatrends, January 27th, 2010 at 8:31 am
• Comments: 0

The video below discusses how to trade a stock which gaps higher, it was recorded Monday January 25, 2010

Here is how the stock actually traded on Tuesday January 26, 2010.

Tickers: daytrade, gap, PRXL

S&P 500 Analysis For Jan 27, 2010

• Posted by: alphatrends, January 26th, 2010 at 10:22 pm
• Comments: 0

The SPY found resistance near 110.50 and remains vulnerable. The chart on the right shows the daily timeframe with the potential for support near trendline, the 100 day moving average and prior support.

click chart to enlarge

Tickers: $SPY

S&P 500 Analysis for 1-26-10

• Posted by: alphatrends, January 25th, 2010 at 9:51 pm
• Comments: 0

The SPY experienced a bounce from oversold levels on Monday, but the upside action was unconvincing. There was a late day push to new highs for the day but it failed at the 2 day VWAP and then experienced a weak close. The market remains fragile and with it below the declining 5 day moving average any long side trades should be kept to daytrades only. A test of the lows from last week seems likely and if the 109 level fails to hold as support then a test of the 100 day MA ~108.78 and the trendline (not shown) which connects from the mid- August lows seems likely, the trendline is in the approximate location as the 100 DMA. This market needs to settle down and establish firm support before most long positions can be trusted again.

Tickers: $SPY